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Arctic melt powers vicious warming circle, scientists say

Arctic sea ice 300x199 Arctic melt powers vicious warming circle, scientists say

photo by Patrick Kelley, U.S. Coast Guard; U.S. Geological Survey (source: Flickr Creative Commons)

Arctic temperatures have risen twice as fast in recent decades as temps in the rest of the world. Melting sea ice – considered part of a positive feedback loop – as well as wind, cloud and ocean current changes have been suspected of driving this rapid warming, known as Arctic amplification.

A positive feedback loop is a system where the cause and effect perpetuate one another, like a vicious circle.

A new study shows that Arctic warming from melting sea ice may be driving a positive feedback loop between rising temperatures and disappearing ice.

From an article in the Guardian:

The concept of Arctic sea ice having a tipping point is still hotly debated. Our results cannot prove whether we have passed a tipping point or not. What we can say is that the emergence of these strong ice-temperature feedbacks can only increase the likelihood of further rapid warming and sea ice loss.

–James Screen, study leader, University of Melbourne, Australia

The global melting of floating ice is also a concern as it threatens to contribute to a rise in sea levels, albeit far less directly than the melting of land ice that then flows into the sea. If floating ice melts it reflects less sunlight and can also unblock glaciers on land, which can in turn fall into the sea. Floating ice has been disappearing at a steady rate over the last 10 years, according to a groundbreaking study. The loss of floating ice has totaled more than ice loss on land from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.

From a Reuters report:

‘It’s a large number,’ said Professor Andrew Shepherd of the University of Leeds, lead author of the paper, estimating the net loss of floating sea ice and ice shelves in the last decade at 7,420 cubic kilometers.

Ironically, some scientists believe that the hole in the ozone over Antarctica – created by mankind’s now-banned use of CFCs – has slowed warming temperatures and ice melt there. However as the ozone hole closes, Antarctic temperatures could increase an average of 3C, causing sea levels to rise by 1.4 meters.

Colin Summerhayes, executive director of SCAR – the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research – was quoted in a Guardian article back in November of last year regarding the dangers of Antarctic ice melt:

It contains 90% of the world’s ice, 70% of the world’s fresh water and that is enough, if it melts, to raise sea levels by 63m.

by Graham Land

Additional resources:

NASA – Sea Ice Yearly Minimum with Graph Overlay 1979-2008

Yale Environment 360 – The Copenhagen Diagnosis: Sobering Update on the Science

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4 Comments

  1. Graham_Land says:

    Admit it, you cherry-picked that half of the sentence, Alex! :D The second part was “albeit far less directly than the melting of land ice that then flows into the sea”.
    /
    Anyhoo, I don’t really get it. But if something is actually floating, isn’t it not really contributing to sea levels? If I let my rubber ducky float around the bath (it’s more apparent in the sink, but I stopped doing that years ago) the water level is not affected as much as when I pretend to drown him by holding him under the water (I don’t actually drown him, I’m not a total sadist). It’s totally not peer-reviewed science, but still.
    Add that to the bit about fresh water having a higher volume than salt, but seriously the bit about floating ice is a side note.

  2. Alex says:

    “The global melting of floating ice is also a concern as it threatens to contribute to a rise in sea levels,”

    That would be news to Archimedes!!

    Only the melting of land based ice increases sea levels, but with more humidity in the atmosphere the thickness of Antarctic ice over land is likely to increase and whatever happens in the next 50 years, the Antarctic land mass is likely to remain at below zero degrees centigrade.

  3. Graham_Land says:

    Thanks, Merv.
    /
    I took out the word ‘significantly’ because it was inaccurate and hopefully I clarified things a bit. The ABC report says ‘If all the world’s floating ice melted it would add about 4 centimeters to sea levels’, because it adds fresh water, which has a higher volume than salt. However, its real effects are knock-on (unblocking glaciers, contributing to a ‘destructive warming cycle’).
    /
    It was a misleading detail, though the main point of the post was Arctic amplification. Even a stupid turkey can admit to a bad detail in a blog post.

  4. Merv says:

    “The global melting of floating ice is also a concern as it threatens to significantly raise sea levels.”

    This is the kind of stupid, false, statement that undermines the problems that can be expected from global warming. As anyone with a basic primary school education should be aware, the melting of “Floating Ice” does not raise sea levels. In fact it slightly decreases sea levels, as ice is a little Less dense than water, and hence occupies less space when it has melted.

    Please try to find a competent (at least marginally) writer if you intend to publish future comments. Your present turkey should not last beyond next thanksgiving.

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