Climate change consensus robust as ever
photo by Rita Willaert (source: Flickr Creative Commons)
The consensus over global warming, which is as strong as ever among scientists, now appears unstable in the eyes of the public.
–London Times
If the conservative leaning London Times says so, then it must be true. But joking aside, as George Monbiot has bemoaned, people are not scientists and their opinions on climate change are generally not informed by science as much as by political identity. Similarly, a study last year showed that humans act like herd animals when it comes to the environment – psychologically speaking, that is.
The scientific case for man made climate change, on the other hand, is actually gaining strength. And it isn’t full of the arrogant certitudes attributed to it by climate skeptics either. Those usually come from normal non-scientist environmentalists and herd-like ruminators such as you and me. Well, you anyway.
From an article in Time magazine:
A search through the much vilified Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports shows that absolute certainty is notably absent. In the most recent document, for example, published in 2007, the authors write: “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG [that is, human-generated greenhouse gas] concentrations.”
–Time magazine
The Time article goes on to explain that there have been more than 100 peer-reviewed post IPCCC studies, which may adjust understandings on topics including Arctic melting, rainfall and temperatures, but enforce the belief that such phenomena have continued and in some cases gotten worse. New factors, such as future sea level rise due to melting Antarctic glaciers, have also been recorded. The Met Office concludes that the human influence on climate is ’stronger than ever’. Gabriele Hegerl, Professor of Climate System Science at the University of Edinburgh, states: ‘We can say with a very high significance level that the effects we see in the climate cannot be attributed to any other forcings.’
From a BBC News report:
“[Our paper looks at] not just the temperatures but also the reducing Arctic sea ice and it includes changing rainfall patterns and it includes the fact that the atmosphere is getting more humid.
– Dr Peter Stott, UK Met Office
The study, recently published in the scientific journal the Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews of Climate Change, names increased water vapor and corresponding sea saltiness as other ‘new’ elements of climate change observed by scientists.
Further studies like these should lend credibility to the scientific community when it comes to climate change, rather than detract from it as specific errors or inaccuracies are discovered and information is updated. For example, a NASA funded study by Boston University suggests that the Amazon is more resilient of droughts than previously believed. Good news, right?
Climate science is a complex pursuit of data and knowledge and not a simple math problem, after all. Interdisciplinary, cross-organizational scientific research cannot be expected to provide absolute certainties about the future, but rather information and associated risks, regardless of political and economic consequences.
by Graham Land
Additional resources:
Independent – Humans must be to blame for climate change, say scientists
Graham Land grew up in Washington, D.C., where he was part of the local hardcore punk scene. Through this unique musical movement he became involved in grass roots anti-racist activism, animal rights and Ecology. Since 2000 Graham has lived in Europe, earning an MA in history from Malmö University in Sweden and working as a musician, English teacher, sports therapist, customer service agent and writer. Graham has a podcast with author Saci Lloyd and is currently pretending to work on his first novel.
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Tags: change, climate, consensus, global, Met Office, science, scientist, studies, study, Time
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