CO2 Emissions may be 50% Worse than Previously Estimated
Over the years, you may have read a number of articles on global warming, climate change and carbon dioxide emissions. You may have compared reports, studied the statistics, and done your own bit of research into the matter. Then, right when you adapt to the information and become used to the fact that, “okay, right now things are this bad and they have until that year before they get worse” you get slammed with more information, which basically states that, whoops, scientists were wrong and things are worse now. Initiate panic mode now.
Yeah, this would be one of those times.
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A recent study published in the journal Nature Geoscience shows that CO2 indirectly causes more global warming than originally thought. To be more specific: calculations on man-made global warming based on CO2 emissions may be underestimated between 30% and 50%. The miscalculation discovery comes from British scientists, who noticed that a tool typically used in climate modeling may have overlooked the sensitivity of important, natural processes to the warming—caused by CO2. However, they want to make sure people understand that these effects would happen over the course of hundreds of years, rather than in one century; and also that people should not disregard the U.N’s temperature rise predictions, as they are also important.
The study’s lead author, Dan Lunt of the University of Bristol, stated:
“We don’t want to be overly alarmist here but if people are thinking about stabilizing CO2 at a certain atmospheric level, or putting together a treaty, or having a debate about what levels should be, it really is important to know what the long-term consequences of those emissions are going to be, because CO2 hangs around for so long.”
One interesting thing about the discovery is in order to obtain the information scientists had to dig into the past—literally. Three million years ago, the Earth went through a previous warming period (although that time it was due to natural processes and not man-made ones) called the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period. Lunt and his colleagues wanted to test a climate model on this very period. So, they drilled cores from ocean sediment to gain information on past carbon levels and temperatures.
It would seem the Pliocene carbon dioxide levels were around 400 ppm, which was not consistent with the warming at that time—5.4 F (3 C) higher than what it is today. The only reasons they can figure for this strange inconsistency is that long-term ice sheet loss and vegetation changes cause the Earth’s surface to absorb more solar radiation, thus raising the bar on global warming.
Today, we are living in a world that has CO2 concentrations roughly at 387 ppm. If you adjust their model and apply it to the current situation, it basically suggests that nothing majorly different will happen from what’s already been estimated. One amusing thing to note is that the world has been working towards a goal to limit warming to 3.6 F (2 C) since pre-industrial times. That’s well over a century (or more) of work—and they still haven’t got it right.
All we can do is hope the now ongoing COP15 conference will do the world some good, for a change.
By Heidi Marshall
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Tags: carbon dioxide, climate change, CO2 emissions, global warming, greenhouse gas, miscalculation
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